Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.196996 3.788420 4.446252 5.230408 6.137821 7.152917 8.372498
2025-07-13 2.466424 3.303163 4.337935 5.702829 7.445837 9.586240 12.401330
2025-07-20 1.906059 2.836343 4.095364 5.902504 8.404212 11.715425 16.393466
2025-07-27 1.545080 2.519490 3.944450 6.141293 9.393695 13.971320 20.824045
2025-08-03 1.235623 2.190885 3.689449 6.152168 10.020532 15.764240 24.802133
2025-08-10 0.964569 1.852082 3.339587 5.933828 10.236563 16.943340 27.980848
2025-08-17 0.749193 1.553002 2.987835 5.634199 10.251214 17.777193 30.680561
2025-08-24 0.614813 1.367371 2.790115 5.549887 10.587040 19.128948 34.309331
2025-08-31 0.512454 1.218823 2.628756 5.495867 10.952533 20.548288 38.169501
2025-09-07 0.459174 1.158938 2.623918 5.727913 11.852597 22.963546 43.944136
2025-09-14 0.396021 1.062159 2.525938 5.758357 12.370594 24.742014 48.753959
2025-09-21 0.342247 0.974083 2.429255 5.773073 12.852608 26.491518 53.658606
2025-09-28 0.292365 0.885362 2.319237 5.751666 13.278386 28.215087 58.754700
2025-10-05 0.280208 0.892212 2.431081 6.236917 14.817538 32.247519 68.621391
2025-10-12 0.252884 0.850965 2.420577 6.442379 15.785880 35.246661 76.756097
2025-10-19 0.231205 0.820296 2.430520 6.696656 16.890442 38.623858 85.931570
2025-10-26 0.201608 0.757651 2.345788 6.706891 17.444284 40.909816 93.093031
2025-11-02 0.167224 0.669470 2.174351 6.470222 17.392829 41.902223 97.661974
2025-11-09 0.135812 0.580892 1.982396 6.145910 17.085419 42.299690 100.997170
2025-11-16 0.116323 0.528071 1.883421 6.054618 17.335627 43.954044 107.173669
2025-11-23 0.100555 0.483895 1.801283 5.996140 17.659585 45.802469 113.925362
2025-11-30 0.093880 0.473684 1.825059 6.247192 18.816746 49.688436 125.547674
2025-12-07 0.083357 0.443891 1.778105 6.280121 19.396264 52.252622 134.345920